The economy probably grew slightly faster last summer than first thought, benefiting from stronger overseas sales of U.S. goods. Still, it’s not likely to be enough to bring relief to millions of unemployed Americans.
Analysts predict the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the July-September quarter. Stronger U.S. exports and greater spending by businesses to replenish their stockpiles are the reasons they are expecting an upward revision from the government’s initial estimate of 2 percent.
The Commerce Department’s second estimate for third-quarter growth will be reported on Tuesday, the same day the Fed is scheduled to release minutes of its closed-door deliberations on Nov. 3 and updated economic projections. Those minutes could reveal greater tension over policymakers’ decision to buy $600 billion worth of government bonds.
“That debate was likely spirited,” said Michael Feroli, economist JPMorgan Chase Bank, about the bond-purchase program that has since sparked criticism inside the Fed, on Capitol Hill and internationally.
The effort is aimed at getting Americans to spend more by making loans cheaper and by boosting stock prices. But no one — including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke — thinks the program would create the robust growth needed to make a big dent in the unemployment rate.
Even with the anticipated upward revision, economic growth would need to grow twice as fast to have any real impact. Under one rule of thumb, the economy would need to grow by 5 percent for a full year to push down the unemployment rate by a full percentage point.
But for all of this year, the economy is expected to expand 2.6 percent. Leading economists polled in a recent AP Economy Survey predict the economy will expand at a 2.4 percent pace in the October-December period. Growth would only be a tad better — logging a 2.5 percent — in…