Predictions that the 21st century is safe from major circulation changes in the North Atlantic Ocean may not be as comforting as they seem. “The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is very unlikely that the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will collapse in the 21st century. They predict a probability of less then 10 percent,” says an assistant professor of geosciences. “However, this should not be interpreted as an all clear signal. There can be a considerable delay between the triggering of an MOC collapse and the actual collapse. In a similar way, a person that has just jumped from a cliff may take comfort that pain in the next few seconds is very unlikely, but the outlook over the long term is less rosy.”