Apple sold a million iPhones in the U.S. in the first 76 days. But will the Mac-maker reach its announced goal of 10 million units this year?
Analysts are betting the answer is yes, and then some. Indeed, some pundits are forecasting Apple is on track to sell 20 million in 2009.
Apple has sold about five million 2G iPhones worldwide, and some analysts estimate the total is closer to six million. Others say the company could not meet its 10 million goal if the new 3G iPhone had not debuted at a lower price.
Morgan Stanley’s Bet
Morgan Stanley raised its target price for Apple’s shares from $185 to $210 and predicted iPhone sales will double in 2009. Morgan Stanley pointed to the new price of $199 as a factor.
Specifically, the investment bank is projecting Apple will sell 27 million iPhones in 2009 with an average revenue of $550 per unit. The lower price of the 3G model, Morgan Stanley wrote, will dramatically increase sales volumes and help drive revenue from sales of updates and other software for the long term.
“We believe the market generally expects a doubling of iPhone units with the lower price point, and we believe this is realistic, if not conservative,” Morgan Stanley said.
Ringing in Agreement
Morgan Stanley isn’t alone in its predictions. Citigroup analyst Richard Gardner also increased the firm’s price target, from $248 to $287. Citigroup said it expects the iPhone to ship 12 million units in the second half of this year and 23 million in 2009.
Apple’s move to shift from a model where it shared revenue from mobile operators to sell the device directly at a lower price is a positive step, Gardner said, because the company will realize iPhone-related revenues more quickly.
Meanwhile, Bernstein Research’s Toni Sacconaghi predicted 10 million new iPhone…