With a growing chorus projecting bad news for AT&T when it loses exclusive U.S. distribution of Apple’s iPhone next month, ChangeWave Research has come up with some hard numbers. Its quarterly survey of smartphone users, completed days before Verizon Wireless announced its Feb. 3 iPhone release date, shows a five percent increase since September in AT&T customers who are ready to jump ship.
Churn, Churn, Churn
Both AT&T and T-Mobile are facing a 15 percent churn rate — those likely to switch providers in the next 90 days — compared to 10 percent for Sprint Nextel and just four percent of Verizon customers. Overall, 10 percent of the 4,050 consumers surveyed said they plan to switch, the highest rate in 18 months.
Forty-three percent of the AT&T users who plan to switch cited poor reception and coverage, and 27 percent cited dropped calls.
A majority of AT&T users, 60 percent, when asked point-blank if they would switch to Verizon “if and when it begins offering the iPhone,” said they would not, but 23 percent indicated they are keeping their options open, and 16 percent said they plan to switch.
Those potential losses could mean tens of millions of customers for a carrier with more than 92 million subscribers. The numbers don’t take into account new adopters.
“Now that consumers have a choice of carriers to host their iPhones, AT&T is certain to see a decline in its quarterly Apple sales,” said Alex Spektor of Strategy Analytics.
But AT&T spokesperson Mark Siegel told us he considers the survey numbers “dubious,” noting that his carrier’s iPhone sales soared even as rumors of the Verizon iPhone circulated.
“There are lots of surveys out there, but what really matters is how people vote with their dollars,” Siegel said. “In the third quarter of 2010 we had 5.2 million iPhone activations, up…